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1.
Antimicrob Agents Chemother ; 67(3): e0151422, 2023 03 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2269374

ABSTRACT

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin (human) investigational product (COVID-HIGIV) is a purified immunoglobulin preparation containing SARS-CoV-2 polyclonal antibodies. This single-center clinical trial aimed to characterize the safety and pharmacokinetics of COVID-HIGIV in healthy, adult volunteers. Participants were enrolled to receive one of three doses of COVID-HIGIV (100, 200, 400 mg/kg) or placebo in a 2:2:2:1 randomization scheme. Between 24 December 2020 and 27 July 2021, 28 participants met eligibility and were randomized with 27 of these 28 (96.4%) being administered either COVID-HIGIV (n = 23) or placebo (n = 4). Only one SAE was observed, and it occurred in the placebo group. A total of 18 out of 27 participants (66.7%) reported 50 adverse events (AEs) overall. All COVID-HIGIV-related adverse events were mild or moderate in severity and transient. The most frequent AEs (>5% of participants) reported in the safety population were headache (n = 6, 22.2%), chills (n = 3, 11.1%), increased bilirubin (n = 2, 7.4%), muscle spasms (n = 2, 7.4%), seasonal allergies (n = 2, 7.4%), pyrexia (n = 2, 7.4%), and oropharyngeal pain (n = 2, 7.4%). Using the SARS-CoV-2 binding IgG immunoassay (n = 22, specific for pharmacokinetics), the geometric means of Cmax (AU/mL) for the three COVID-HIGIV dose levels (low to high) were 7.69, 17.02, and 33.27 AU/mL; the average values of Tmax were 7.09, 7.93, and 5.36 h, respectively. The half-life of COVID-HIGIV per dose level was 24 d (583 h), 31 d (753 h), and 26 d (619 h) for the 100 mg/kg, 200 mg/kg, and 400 mg/kg groups, respectively. The safety and pharmacokinetics of COVID-HIGIV support its development as a single-dose regimen for postexposure prophylaxis or treatment of COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Adult , SARS-CoV-2 , Antibodies, Viral , Immunoglobulin G , Administration, Intravenous , Double-Blind Method
2.
Science ; 370(6521): 1227-1230, 2020 12 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2243268

ABSTRACT

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a global pandemic with millions infected and more than 1 million fatalities. Questions regarding the robustness, functionality, and longevity of the antibody response to the virus remain unanswered. Here, on the basis of a dataset of 30,082 individuals screened at Mount Sinai Health System in New York City, we report that the vast majority of infected individuals with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 experience robust immunoglobulin G antibody responses against the viral spike protein. We also show that titers are relatively stable for at least a period of about 5 months and that anti-spike binding titers significantly correlate with neutralization of authentic SARS-CoV-2. Our data suggest that more than 90% of seroconverters make detectable neutralizing antibody responses. These titers remain relatively stable for several months after infection.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Neutralizing/immunology , Antibodies, Viral/immunology , COVID-19/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Antibodies, Neutralizing/blood , Antibodies, Viral/blood , COVID-19/blood , Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay , Humans , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Immunoglobulin G/immunology , Neutralization Tests
3.
Life (Basel) ; 13(1)2023 Jan 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2200478

ABSTRACT

(1) Background: Several retrospective observational analyzed treatment outcomes for COVID-19; (2) Methods: Inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) was applied to correct for bias due to informative censoring in database of hospitalized patients who did and did not receive convalescent plasma; (3) Results: When compared with an IPCW analysis, overall mortality was overestimated using an unadjusted Kaplan-Meier curve, and hazard ratios for the older age group compared to the youngest were underestimated using the Cox proportional hazard models and 30-day mortality; (4) Conclusions: An IPCW analysis provided stabilizing weights by hospital admission.

4.
Obes Sci Pract ; 8(4): 474-482, 2022 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1981949

ABSTRACT

Objectives: Hospitalized patients with severe obesity require adapted hospital management. The aim of this study was to evaluate a machine learning model to predict in-hospital mortality among this population. Methods: Data of unselected consecutive emergency department admissions of hospitalized patients with severe obesity (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2) was analyzed. Data was retrieved from five hospitals from the Mount Sinai health system, New York. The study time frame was between January 2011 and December 2019. Data was used to train a gradient-boosting machine learning model to identify in-hospital mortality. The model was trained and evaluated based on the data from four hospitals and externally validated on held-out data from the fifth hospital. Results: A total of 14,078 hospital admissions of inpatients with severe obesity were included. The in-hospital mortality rate was 297/14,078 (2.1%). In univariate analysis, albumin (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.77), blood urea nitrogen (AUC = 0.76), acuity level (AUC = 0.73), lactate (AUC = 0.72), and chief complaint (AUC = 0.72) were the best single predictors. For Youden's index, the model had a sensitivity of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.67-0.86) with a false positive rate of 1:9. Conclusion: A machine learning model trained on clinical measures provides proof of concept performance in predicting mortality in patients with severe obesity. This implies that such models may help to adopt specific decision support tools for this population.

5.
J Am Med Inform Assoc ; 29(9): 1618-1630, 2022 08 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1860867

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To describe adaptations necessary for effective use of direct-to-consumer (DTC) cameras in an inpatient setting, from the perspective of health care workers. METHODS: Our qualitative study included semi-structured interviews and focus groups with clinicians, information technology (IT) personnel, and health system leaders affiliated with the Mount Sinai Health System. All participants either worked in a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) unit with DTC cameras or participated in the camera implementation. Three researchers coded the transcripts independently and met weekly to discuss and resolve discrepancies. Abiding by inductive thematic analysis, coders revised the codebook until they reached saturation. All transcripts were coded in Dedoose using the final codebook. RESULTS: Frontline clinical staff, IT personnel, and health system leaders (N = 39) participated in individual interviews and focus groups in November 2020-April 2021. Our analysis identified 5 areas for effective DTC camera use: technology, patient monitoring, workflows, interpersonal relationships, and infrastructure. Participants described adaptations created to optimize camera use and opportunities for improvement necessary for sustained use. Non-COVID-19 patients tended to decline participation. DISCUSSION: Deploying DTC cameras on inpatient units required adaptations in many routine processes. Addressing consent, 2-way communication issues, patient privacy, and messaging about video monitoring could help facilitate a nimble rollout. Implementation and dissemination of inpatient video monitoring using DTC cameras requires input from patients and frontline staff. CONCLUSIONS: Given the resources and time it takes to implement a usable camera solution, other health systems might benefit from creating task forces to investigate their use before the next crisis.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Health Personnel , Hospitals , Humans , Inpatients , Search Engine
6.
BMC Endocr Disord ; 22(1): 13, 2022 Jan 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1613234

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Research regarding the association between severe obesity and in-hospital mortality is inconsistent. We evaluated the impact of body mass index (BMI) levels on mortality in the medical wards. The analysis was performed separately before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We retrospectively retrieved data of adult patients admitted to the medical wards at the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City. The study was conducted between January 1, 2011, to March 23, 2021. Patients were divided into two sub-cohorts: pre-COVID-19 and during-COVID-19. Patients were then clustered into groups based on BMI ranges. A multivariate logistic regression analysis compared the mortality rate among the BMI groups, before and during the pandemic. RESULTS: Overall, 179,288 patients were admitted to the medical wards and had a recorded BMI measurement. 149,098 were admitted before the COVID-19 pandemic and 30,190 during the pandemic. Pre-pandemic, multivariate analysis showed a "J curve" between BMI and mortality. Severe obesity (BMI > 40) had an aOR of 0.8 (95% CI:0.7-1.0, p = 0.018) compared to the normal BMI group. In contrast, during the pandemic, the analysis showed a "U curve" between BMI and mortality. Severe obesity had an aOR of 1.7 (95% CI:1.3-2.4, p < 0.001) compared to the normal BMI group. CONCLUSIONS: Medical ward patients with severe obesity have a lower risk for mortality compared to patients with normal BMI. However, this does not apply during COVID-19, where obesity was a leading risk factor for mortality in the medical wards. It is important for the internal medicine physician to understand the intricacies of the association between obesity and medical ward mortality.


Subject(s)
Body Mass Index , COVID-19/mortality , Hospital Mortality/trends , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Obesity/physiopathology , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/pathology , COVID-19/virology , Case-Control Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , New York City/epidemiology , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Survival Rate
7.
J Med Internet Res ; 23(2): e26107, 2021 02 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1574541

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Changes in autonomic nervous system function, characterized by heart rate variability (HRV), have been associated with infection and observed prior to its clinical identification. OBJECTIVE: We performed an evaluation of HRV collected by a wearable device to identify and predict COVID-19 and its related symptoms. METHODS: Health care workers in the Mount Sinai Health System were prospectively followed in an ongoing observational study using the custom Warrior Watch Study app, which was downloaded to their smartphones. Participants wore an Apple Watch for the duration of the study, measuring HRV throughout the follow-up period. Surveys assessing infection and symptom-related questions were obtained daily. RESULTS: Using a mixed-effect cosinor model, the mean amplitude of the circadian pattern of the standard deviation of the interbeat interval of normal sinus beats (SDNN), an HRV metric, differed between subjects with and without COVID-19 (P=.006). The mean amplitude of this circadian pattern differed between individuals during the 7 days before and the 7 days after a COVID-19 diagnosis compared to this metric during uninfected time periods (P=.01). Significant changes in the mean and amplitude of the circadian pattern of the SDNN was observed between the first day of reporting a COVID-19-related symptom compared to all other symptom-free days (P=.01). CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinally collected HRV metrics from a commonly worn commercial wearable device (Apple Watch) can predict the diagnosis of COVID-19 and identify COVID-19-related symptoms. Prior to the diagnosis of COVID-19 by nasal swab polymerase chain reaction testing, significant changes in HRV were observed, demonstrating the predictive ability of this metric to identify COVID-19 infection.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Testing/methods , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/physiopathology , Heart Rate/physiology , Wearable Electronic Devices , Adult , COVID-19/virology , Circadian Rhythm/physiology , Female , Health Personnel , Humans , Male , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
8.
J Med Virol ; 93(9): 5481-5486, 2021 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1363685

ABSTRACT

As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections continue, there is a substantial need for cost-effective and large-scale testing that utilizes specimens that can be readily collected from both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals in various community settings. Although multiple diagnostic methods utilize nasopharyngeal specimens, saliva specimens represent an attractive alternative as they can rapidly and safely be collected from different populations. While saliva has been described as an acceptable clinical matrix for the detection of SARS-CoV-2, evaluations of analytic performance across platforms for this specimen type are limited. Here, we used a novel sensitive RT-PCR/MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry-based assay (Agena MassARRAY®) to detect SARS-CoV-2 in saliva specimens. The platform demonstrated high diagnostic sensitivity and specificity when compared to matched patient upper respiratory specimens. We also evaluated the analytical sensitivity of the platform and determined the limit of detection of the assay to be 1562.5 copies/ml. Furthermore, across the five individual target components of this assay, there was a range in analytic sensitivities for each target with the N2 target being the most sensitive. Overall, this system also demonstrated comparable performance when compared to the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in saliva by the cobas® 6800/8800 SARS-CoV-2 real-time RT-PCR Test (Roche). Together, we demonstrate that saliva represents an appropriate matrix for SARS-CoV-2 detection on the novel Agena system as well as on a conventional real-time RT-PCR assay. We conclude that the MassARRAY® system is a sensitive and reliable platform for SARS-CoV-2 detection in saliva, offering scalable throughput in a large variety of clinical laboratory settings.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing/standards , COVID-19/diagnosis , Diagnostic Tests, Routine/standards , RNA, Viral/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Saliva/virology , Spectrometry, Mass, Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption-Ionization/standards , Benchmarking , COVID-19/virology , COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing/instrumentation , COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing/methods , Diagnostic Tests, Routine/instrumentation , Diagnostic Tests, Routine/methods , Humans , Limit of Detection , Nasopharynx/virology , Specimen Handling/standards , Spectrometry, Mass, Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption-Ionization/instrumentation , Spectrometry, Mass, Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption-Ionization/methods
9.
Front Med (Lausanne) ; 8: 563465, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1231343

ABSTRACT

Background: Detecting and isolating cases of COVID-19 are amongst the key elements listed by the WHO to reduce transmission. This approach has been reported to reduce those symptomatic with COVID-19 in the population by over 90%. Testing is part of a strategy that will save lives. Testing everyone maybe ideal, but it is not practical. A risk tool based on patient demographics and clinical parameters has the potential to help identify patients most likely to test negative for SARS-CoV-2. If effective it could be used to aide clinical decision making and reduce the testing burden. Methods: At the time of this analysis, a total of 9,516 patients with symptoms suggestive of Covid-19, were assessed and tested at Mount Sinai Institutions in New York. Patient demographics, clinical parameters and test results were collected. A robust prediction pipeline was used to develop a risk tool to predict the likelihood of a positive test for Covid-19. The risk tool was analyzed in a holdout dataset from the cohort and its discriminative ability, calibration and net benefit assessed. Results: Over 48% of those tested in this cohort, had a positive result. The derived model had an AUC of 0.77, provided reliable risk prediction, and demonstrated a superior net benefit than a strategy of testing everybody. When a risk cut-off of 70% was applied, the model had a negative predictive value of 96%. Conclusion: Such a tool could be used to help aide but not replace clinical decision making and conserve vital resources needed to effectively tackle this pandemic.

10.
Obesity (Silver Spring) ; 29(9): 1547-1553, 2021 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1212774

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Obesity is associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Disease severity is associated with a higher COVID-19 antibody titer. The COVID-19 antibody titer response of patients with obesity versus patients without obesity was compared. METHODS: The data of individuals tested for COVID-19 serology at the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City between March 1, 2020, and December 14, 2021, were retrospectively retrieved. The primary outcome was peak antibody titer, assessed as a binary variable (1:2,880, which was the highest detected titer, versus lower than 1:2,880). In patients with a positive serology test, peak titer rates were compared between BMI groups (<18.5, 18.5 to 25, 25 to 30, 30 to 40, and ≥40 kg/m2 ). A multivariable logistic regression model was used to analyze the independent association between different BMI groups and peak titer. RESULTS: Overall, 39,342 individuals underwent serology testing and had BMI measurements. A positive serology test was present in 12,314 patients. Peak titer rates were associated with obesity (BMI < 18.5 [34.5%], 18.5 to 25 [29.2%], 25 to 30 [37.7%], 30 to 40 [44.7%], ≥40 [52.0%]; p < 0.001). In a multivariable analysis, severe obesity had the highest adjusted odds ratio for peak titer (95% CI: 2.1-3.0). CONCLUSION: COVID-19 neutralizing antibody titer is associated with obesity. This has implications on the understanding of the role of obesity in COVID-19 severity.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral/blood , COVID-19 , Obesity , Antibodies, Neutralizing/blood , COVID-19/immunology , Humans , Logistic Models , Obesity/complications , Retrospective Studies
11.
Lancet Microbe ; 1(7): e283-e289, 2020 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1087375

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a global pandemic. The proportion of infected individuals who seroconvert is still an open question. In addition, it has been shown in some individuals that viral genome can be detected up to 3 months after symptom resolution. We investigated both seroconversion and PCR positivity in a large cohort of convalescent serum donors in the New York City (NY, USA) region. METHODS: In this observational study, we ran an outreach programme in the New York City area. We recruited participants via the REDCap (Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA) online survey response. Individuals with confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection were screened via PCR for presence of viral genome and via ELISA for presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies. One-way ANOVA and Fisher's exact test were used to measure the association of age, gender, symptom duration, and days from symptom onset and resolution with positive antibody results. FINDINGS: Between March 26 and April 10, 2020, we measured SARS-CoV-2 antibody titres in 1343 people. Of the 624 participants with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who had serologies done after 4 weeks, all but three seroconverted to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, whereas 269 (37%) of 719 participants with suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection seroconverted. PCR positivity was detected up to 28 days from symptom resolution. INTERPRETATION: Most patients with confirmed COVID-19 seroconvert, potentially providing immunity to reinfection. We also report that in a large proportion of individuals, viral genome can be detected via PCR in the upper respiratory tract for weeks after symptom resolution, but it is unclear whether this signal represents infectious virus. Analysis of our large cohort suggests that most patients with mild COVID-19 seroconvert 4 weeks after illness, and raises questions about the use of PCR to clear positive individuals. FUNDING: None.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Antibodies, Viral , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/therapy , Humans , Immunization, Passive , New York City/epidemiology , Polymerase Chain Reaction , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus , COVID-19 Serotherapy
12.
J Am Soc Nephrol ; 32(1): 151-160, 2021 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1080996

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Early reports indicate that AKI is common among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and associated with worse outcomes. However, AKI among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the United States is not well described. METHODS: This retrospective, observational study involved a review of data from electronic health records of patients aged ≥18 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the Mount Sinai Health System from February 27 to May 30, 2020. We describe the frequency of AKI and dialysis requirement, AKI recovery, and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with mortality. RESULTS: Of 3993 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, AKI occurred in 1835 (46%) patients; 347 (19%) of the patients with AKI required dialysis. The proportions with stages 1, 2, or 3 AKI were 39%, 19%, and 42%, respectively. A total of 976 (24%) patients were admitted to intensive care, and 745 (76%) experienced AKI. Of the 435 patients with AKI and urine studies, 84% had proteinuria, 81% had hematuria, and 60% had leukocyturia. Independent predictors of severe AKI were CKD, men, and higher serum potassium at admission. In-hospital mortality was 50% among patients with AKI versus 8% among those without AKI (aOR, 9.2; 95% confidence interval, 7.5 to 11.3). Of survivors with AKI who were discharged, 35% had not recovered to baseline kidney function by the time of discharge. An additional 28 of 77 (36%) patients who had not recovered kidney function at discharge did so on posthospital follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: AKI is common among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and is associated with high mortality. Of all patients with AKI, only 30% survived with recovery of kidney function by the time of discharge.


Subject(s)
Acute Kidney Injury/etiology , COVID-19/complications , SARS-CoV-2 , Acute Kidney Injury/epidemiology , Acute Kidney Injury/therapy , Acute Kidney Injury/urine , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/mortality , Female , Hematuria/etiology , Hospital Mortality , Hospitals, Private/statistics & numerical data , Hospitals, Urban/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Incidence , Inpatients , Leukocytes , Male , Middle Aged , New York City/epidemiology , Proteinuria/etiology , Renal Dialysis , Retrospective Studies , Treatment Outcome , Urine/cytology
13.
Lung ; 198(5): 771-775, 2020 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-756086

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To investigate whether sarcoidosis patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 are at risk for adverse disease outcomes. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted in five hospitals within the Mount Sinai Health System during March 1, 2020 to July 29, 2020. All patients diagnosed with COVID-19 were included in the study. We identified sarcoidosis patients who met diagnostic criteria for sarcoidosis according to accepted guidelines. An adverse disease outcome was defined as the presence of intubation and mechanical ventilation or in-hospital mortality. In sarcoidosis patients, we reported (when available) the results of pulmonary function testing measured within 3 years prior to the time of SARS­CoV­2 infection. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to generate an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) to evaluate sarcoidosis as a risk factor for an adverse outcome. The same model was used to analyze sarcoidosis patients with moderate and/or severe impairment in pulmonary function. RESULTS: The study included 7337 patients, 37 of whom (0.5%) had sarcoidosis. The crude rate of developing an adverse outcome was significantly higher in patients with moderately and/or severely impaired pulmonary function (9/14 vs. 3/23, p = 0.003). While the diagnosis of sarcoidosis was not independently associated with risk of an adverse event, (aOR 1.8, 95% CI 0.9-3.6), the diagnosis of sarcoidosis in patients with moderately and/or severely impaired pulmonary function was associated with an adverse outcome (aOR 7.8, 95% CI 2.4-25.8). CONCLUSION: Moderate or severe impairment in pulmonary function is associated with mortality in sarcoidosis patients infected with SARS­CoV­2.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , Respiratory Function Tests/methods , Sarcoidosis, Pulmonary , COVID-19 , Comorbidity , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Coronavirus Infections/physiopathology , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Outcome and Process Assessment, Health Care , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Pneumonia, Viral/physiopathology , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Respiration, Artificial/statistics & numerical data , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Sarcoidosis, Pulmonary/diagnosis , Sarcoidosis, Pulmonary/epidemiology , Sarcoidosis, Pulmonary/physiopathology , United States/epidemiology
14.
J Med Internet Res ; 22(11): e24018, 2020 11 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-979821

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has infected millions of people worldwide and is responsible for several hundred thousand fatalities. The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods to meet these needs are lacking. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to analyze the electronic health records (EHRs) of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to hospitals in the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City; to develop machine learning models for making predictions about the hospital course of the patients over clinically meaningful time horizons based on patient characteristics at admission; and to assess the performance of these models at multiple hospitals and time points. METHODS: We used Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and baseline comparator models to predict in-hospital mortality and critical events at time windows of 3, 5, 7, and 10 days from admission. Our study population included harmonized EHR data from five hospitals in New York City for 4098 COVID-19-positive patients admitted from March 15 to May 22, 2020. The models were first trained on patients from a single hospital (n=1514) before or on May 1, externally validated on patients from four other hospitals (n=2201) before or on May 1, and prospectively validated on all patients after May 1 (n=383). Finally, we established model interpretability to identify and rank variables that drive model predictions. RESULTS: Upon cross-validation, the XGBoost classifier outperformed baseline models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for mortality of 0.89 at 3 days, 0.85 at 5 and 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days. XGBoost also performed well for critical event prediction, with an AUC-ROC of 0.80 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. In external validation, XGBoost achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.88 at 3 days, 0.86 at 5 days, 0.86 at 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days for mortality prediction. Similarly, the unimputed XGBoost model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.78 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. Trends in performance on prospective validation sets were similar. At 7 days, acute kidney injury on admission, elevated LDH, tachypnea, and hyperglycemia were the strongest drivers of critical event prediction, while higher age, anion gap, and C-reactive protein were the strongest drivers of mortality prediction. CONCLUSIONS: We externally and prospectively trained and validated machine learning models for mortality and critical events for patients with COVID-19 at different time horizons. These models identified at-risk patients and uncovered underlying relationships that predicted outcomes.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Machine Learning/standards , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Acute Kidney Injury/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Cohort Studies , Electronic Health Records , Female , Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Hospitals , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , New York City/epidemiology , Pandemics , Prognosis , ROC Curve , Risk Assessment/methods , Risk Assessment/standards , SARS-CoV-2 , Young Adult
15.
Cancer Cell ; 38(5): 594-597, 2020 11 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-972295

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), like cancer, is a complex disease with clinical phases of progression. Initially conceptualized as a respiratory disease, COVID-19 is increasingly recognized as a multi-organ and heterogeneous illness. Disease staging is a method for measuring the progression and severity of an illness using objective clinical and molecular criteria. Integral to cancer staging is "metastasis," defined as the spread of a disease-producing agent, including neoplastic cells and pathogens such as certain viruses, from the primary site to distinct anatomic locations. Staging provides valuable frameworks and benchmarks for clinical decision-making in patient management, improved prognostication, and evidence-based treatment selection.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Inflammation/etiology , Multiple Organ Failure/etiology , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Severity of Illness Index , Virus Internalization , Virus Replication , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/pathology , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Humans , Inflammation/pathology , Multiple Organ Failure/pathology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/pathology , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , SARS-CoV-2
16.
BMJ Open ; 10(11): e040736, 2020 11 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-947830

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic is a global public health crisis, with over 33 million cases and 999 000 deaths worldwide. Data are needed regarding the clinical course of hospitalised patients, particularly in the USA. We aimed to compare clinical characteristic of patients with COVID-19 who had in-hospital mortality with those who were discharged alive. DESIGN: Demographic, clinical and outcomes data for patients admitted to five Mount Sinai Health System hospitals with confirmed COVID-19 between 27 February and 2 April 2020 were identified through institutional electronic health records. We performed a retrospective comparative analysis of patients who had in-hospital mortality or were discharged alive. SETTING: All patients were admitted to the Mount Sinai Health System, a large quaternary care urban hospital system. PARTICIPANTS: Participants over the age of 18 years were included. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: We investigated in-hospital mortality during the study period. RESULTS: A total of 2199 patients with COVID-19 were hospitalised during the study period. As of 2 April, 1121 (51%) patients remained hospitalised, and 1078 (49%) completed their hospital course. Of the latter, the overall mortality was 29%, and 36% required intensive care. The median age was 65 years overall and 75 years in those who died. Pre-existing conditions were present in 65% of those who died and 46% of those discharged. In those who died, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 11.7%, D-dimer was 2.4 µg/mL, C reactive protein was 162 mg/L and procalcitonin was 0.44 ng/mL. In those discharged, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 16.6%, D-dimer was 0.93 µg/mL, C reactive protein was 79 mg/L and procalcitonin was 0.09 ng/mL. CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort of hospitalised patients, requirement of intensive care and mortality were high. Patients who died typically had more pre-existing conditions and greater perturbations in inflammatory markers as compared with those who were discharged.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/blood , Critical Care , Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization , Pandemics , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , C-Reactive Protein/metabolism , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , Comorbidity , Critical Care/statistics & numerical data , Female , Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products/metabolism , Hospitals , Humans , Lymphocytes/metabolism , Male , Middle Aged , New York City/epidemiology , Procalcitonin/blood , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Young Adult
17.
Am J Public Health ; 111(2): 247-252, 2021 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-937313

ABSTRACT

In April 2020, in light of COVID-19-related blood shortages, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) reduced the deferral period for men who have sex with men (MSM) from its previous duration of 1 year to 3 months.Although originally born out of necessity, the decades-old restrictions on MSM donors have been mitigated by significant advancements in HIV screening, treatment, and public education. The severity of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic-and the urgent need for safe blood products to respond to such crises-demands an immediate reconsideration of the 3-month deferral policy for MSM.We review historical HIV testing and transmission evidence, discuss the ethical ramifications of the current deferral period, and examine the issue of noncompliance with donor deferral rules. We also propose an eligibility screening format that involves an individual risk-based screening protocol and, unlike current FDA guidelines, does not effectively exclude donors on the basis of gender identity or sexual orientation. Our policy proposal would allow historically marginalized community members to participate with dignity in the blood donation process without compromising blood donation and transfusion safety outcomes.


Subject(s)
Blood Donors/ethics , Blood Safety/standards , Blood Transfusion/standards , COVID-19/epidemiology , Donor Selection/standards , Sexual and Gender Minorities/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/therapy , COVID-19/transmission , HIV Infections/transmission , Health Policy , Homosexuality, Male/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Male , Transgender Persons/statistics & numerical data , United States
18.
J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth ; 35(5): 1271-1273, 2021 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-919373
19.
Am J Emerg Med ; 46: 520-524, 2021 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-912013

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIM: New York City (NYC) is an epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Proper triage of patients with possible COVID-19 via chief complaint is critical but not fully optimized. This study aimed to investigate the association between presentation by chief complaints and COVID-19 status. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed adult emergency department (ED) patient visits from five different NYC hospital campuses from March 1, 2020 to May 13, 2020 of patients who underwent nasopharyngeal COVID-19 RT-PCR testing. The positive and negative COVID-19 cohorts were then assessed for different chief complaints obtained from structured triage data. Sub-analysis was performed for patients older than 65 and within chief complaints with high mortality. RESULTS: Of 11,992 ED patient visits who received COVID-19 testing, 6524/11992 (54.4%) were COVID-19 positive. 73.5% of fever, 67.7% of shortness of breath, and 65% of cough had COVID-19, but others included 57.5% of weakness/fall/altered mental status, 55.5% of glycemic control, and 51.4% of gastrointestinal symptoms. In patients over 65, 76.7% of diarrhea, 73.7% of fatigue, and 69.3% of weakness had COVID-19. 45.5% of dehydration, 40.5% of altered mental status, 27% of fall, and 24.6% of hyperglycemia patients experienced mortality. CONCLUSION: A novel high risk COVID-19 patient population was identified from chief complaint data, which is different from current suggested CDC guidelines, and may help triage systems to better isolate COVID-19 patients. Older patients with COVID-19 infection presented with more atypical complaints warranting special consideration. COVID-19 was associated with higher mortality in a unique group of complaints also warranting special consideration.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Testing/methods , COVID-19/diagnosis , Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics , Triage/methods , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , New York City/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies
20.
BMJ Open ; 10(10): e040441, 2020 10 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-894876

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To assess association of clinical features on COVID-19 patient outcomes. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study using electronic medical record data. SETTING: Five member hospitals from the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City (NYC). PARTICIPANTS: 28 336 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 from 24 February 2020 to 15 April 2020, including 6158 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Positive test rates and in-hospital mortality were assessed for different racial groups. Among positive cases admitted to the hospital (N=3273), we estimated HR for both discharge and death across various explanatory variables, including patient demographics, hospital site and unit, smoking status, vital signs, lab results and comorbidities. RESULTS: Hispanics (29%) and African Americans (25%) had disproportionately high positive case rates relative to their representation in the overall NYC population (p<0.05); however, no differences in mortality rates were observed in hospitalised patients based on race. Outcomes differed significantly between hospitals (Gray's T=248.9; p<0.05), reflecting differences in average baseline age and underlying comorbidities. Significant risk factors for mortality included age (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.06; p=1.15e-32), oxygen saturation (HR 0.985, 95% CI 0.982 to 0.988; p=1.57e-17), care in intensive care unit areas (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.92; p=7.81e-6) and elevated creatinine (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.47 to 2.10; p=7.48e-10), white cell count (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.04; p=8.4e-3) and body mass index (BMI) (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.03; p=1.09e-2). Deceased patients were more likely to have elevated markers of inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: While race was associated with higher risk of infection, we did not find racial disparities in inpatient mortality suggesting that outcomes in a single tertiary care health system are comparable across races. In addition, we identified key clinical features associated with reduced mortality and discharge. These findings could help to identify which COVID-19 patients are at greatest risk of a severe infection response and predict survival.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , Age Factors , COVID-19 , COVID-19 Testing , Clinical Laboratory Techniques/statistics & numerical data , Comorbidity , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Electronic Health Records/statistics & numerical data , Ethnicity , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Mortality , New York City/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2
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